The Zune is often laughed at as a brown brick and dismissed by the technical community as an object of ridicule and failure. Clear Analysis of the Zune indicates that the Zune should not be counted out so quickly. There are other Microsoft consumer product introductions from which we can draw parallels with and use to predict the success or failure of the Zune product line. Those products are the Xbox and the Windows Mobile PDA and Smartphones.
When the original Xbox was first introduced it was quickly seen as a failure. It was said it was too big, not enough games. It quickly displaced Nintendo as the #2 console on the market. Fast forward to today and Microsoft has sold over 10 million of its Xbox 360 consoles and is the #1 next-generation console maker.
When the Windows CE PDA platform was first introduced it was ridiculed as being a weak competitor to the dominant PalmOS platform. Fast forward to today and the Windows Mobile PDA market share is 45%, beating RIM at 23% and PalmOS at 18%. PalmOS has started to introduce Windows Mobile based devices.
Given Microsofts history in playing long term catch up you should not count the Zune out. Most likely, a future generation Zune will become the dominant player in the digital music player market. Already the Zune has captured 20% of the high end player market - those devices costing $249 or more.
